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Asia continues to draw clear of global economic growth, but may be affected by a worsening crisis in the euro area because of its trade and investment links with Europe, said Saturday the director of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde.
The latter was speaking at a press conference after his meeting with Japanese Minister of Finance, Jun Azumi.
Former French Minister of Economy has called for strengthening international cooperation and a determined political action in order to ensure a strong, sustainable and balanced.
"(…) We discussed the consequences of the crisis in the euro area, and that it would have for the rest of the world, especially Asia, if it gets worse again."
"In current circumstances, no country can be immune, regardless of its development, its level of emergence or advancement," she warned.
Before arriving in Tokyo, Christine Lagarde visited Moscow and Beijing, hoping to convince Russia and China to invest part of their huge foreign exchange reserves in the bailout funds in the euro area .
The large emerging group of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) are reluctant to invest directly in the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), and prefer to help Europe through contributions to the IMF.
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Increase in grants, including Milan slight easing of interest rates in the long run Italian … Silvio Berlusconi's announcement he will leave soon to relieve the financial markets. The Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi
The markets applauded Wednesday morning the next departure of Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, whose ability to recover the finances of his country were strongly questioned by investors. So much so that the pressure on interest rates threatened to kill Italian Italy asphyxiation.
In the wake of the Asian stock market, the European equity markets have in turn opened up. Italian interest rates at 10 years have slightly relaxed the bond market and oil prices climbed. The euro, however, was stable.
Paris and London and took a little over 0.8% at the opening.
"The risk appetite increases, investors favor cyclical stocks at the expense of defensive background of relief related to the resignation of Berlusconi," he told Dow Jones Newswires Justin Rooney, head of sales at CBA in Sydney.
The Italian 10-year rate is slightly relaxed: they amounted to 6.65% Wednesday morning in Asia, after reaching a day high of 6.77% in Europe. Before the announcement of the forthcoming resignation of the head of the Italian government, the 10-year rate had risen to 6.77%, a level unprecedented since the inception of the euro, slightly more than the previous record which dated from the morning same (6.73%).
Sanctioned markets and Italy for its policy and had considered lax in their sights the prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, seen as unable to apply the meusres rigor demanded by the European Union.
Safran and Thales close to agreement on two joint ventures
Safran and Thales are close to an agreement in principle on the creation of two joint ventures, one in optronics and the other in inertial navigation, officials said Friday a source close to the matter, confirming a report of daily Les Echos.
The two manufacturers for the aerospace, defense and security in May had announced the resumption of talks suspended in mid-2010, under pressure from the state, their common shareholder that seeks to reduce duplication in the sector defense budget cuts in full.
"Thales and Safran are close to an agreement in principle, but it is not the final agreement," the source said, adding that the joint venture would be headed by the Thales optronics and that in the inertial navigation by Safran.
The Dow Jones gained 0.07% Nasdaq 0.86% yield
Wall Street ended Tuesday in a dispersed a volatile session, as investors await the outcome of a two-day meeting Tuesday and Wednesday, the Monetary Policy Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve.
The Dow Jones Industrial 30 closed up 0.07% or 10.65 points to 11,408.66 points.
The S & P-500, wider, has lost 2 points, or 0.17% to 1202.09 points.
The Nasdaq Composite fell on its side of 22.59 points (-0.86%) to 2590.24 points.
Faced with strong pressure on financial markets and fears of a relapse of the economy in recession, the Federal Reserve prepares to influence long rates to support economic activity, an action similar to that conducted in the years 60 and then christened "Operation Twist".
With an eye on the sinking of the crisis of sovereign debt in Europe and another on an unemployment rate fails to fall below 9% in the U.S., the Fed should gradually change the composition of its balance sheet to increase the share of long-term securities.
Some traders, however, warn that the rise could be short term, investors may be tempted to take profits after Wednesday's strong performance last week.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also reduced its growth forecast for the United States in 2011 to 1.5% and 1.8% in 2012 against 2.5% and 2.7% respectively, projected in June.
The IMF, Europe and the United States may plunge into recession next year, said the International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for global growth to 4.0% this year and in 2012, against 4, 3% for 2011 and 4.5% for 2012 projected three months ago.
The housing starts have also declined more than expected in August, falling 5% to a seasonally adjusted pace of 571,000 units, according to the Commerce Department (consensus: 590,000 units).
Values, the way Google Inc. has closed almost in equilibrium after adding Visa (3.12%) to the list of contributors to its proposed electronic wallet for mobile under an agreement that will allow customers Visa to conduct transactions from their mobile phones smartphones.
Do you live better or worse than before?
According to a survey, three out of four Fançais observe a decline in their standard of living. And you? The basket of essential goods for households with small budgets
Three in four French people think life worse than before, a decision that had never reached such a level for twenty years, according to a survey by TNS Sofres for the association of mayors of major cities in France.
To the question "Did you feel that in recent years people like you live better or worse than before," 75% of respondents answered "less". This feeling is a "historic high in the evolution of the personal situation of the French" in the TNS Sofres survey, conducted since 1981, said the institute.
It manifests itself particularly in the 25-49 age group (81%) and among the employees (87%) and workers (82%).Only 14% say their side "better life", while 10% see no change (1% undecided).
With an unemployment rate of 9.6% according to INSEE, and generally 3.3 million people, who are not working but want to work in France, the fear of becoming unemployed grows in the opinion, according this investigation. Two out of three French (66%) fear of "risks of unemployment", for themselves or someone in their household. A result in increase of 4 points from last year and 16 points since 1988, said the Sofres.
And you, your standard of living has deteriorated there? How do you explain it? do you fear unemployment? Give us your opinion in the comments.
European shares fall, Paris underwent the greatest decline
European shares fell again Monday, and Paris more than others, banking stocks have sealed the evidence against the backdrop of threats of deterioration of the note of the three major French banks by Moody's.
Sign of the growing concern of the markets on the ability of European leaders to provide credible answers to the crisis of sovereign debt, the euro, which had hitherto resisted rather, fell to a low of six months to a , 34949 dollar at the meeting.
It was trading around 1.36544 in late afternoon, the euro was hurt by the statements of German officials who have openly discussed the case of an outflow of Greece in the euro area, two days after the announcement of the resignation of sensational Jürgen Stark, chief economist at the European Central Bank (ECB), hostile to the policy of bond buyback of fragile states
The CAC 40 index, which opened a bearish gap of 75 points (difference between the lowest of the previous session and the highest of the day 2.967/2.892) closed down 4.03% at 2854.81 points, but above its lowest Session (2820.76) hit after the announcement of an explosion on the Marcoule nuclear site in the Gard.The index fell 3.6% Friday.
Analysts Graphics Day by Day, the next intermediate support of the CAC is around 2785 points, which correspond to the projection of the decline in the first week of September. They felt then, the major support is around 2720 points, the low point and closing meeting of March 30, 2009.
NO RESPITE TO THE HORIZON
London has sold 1.63% 2.27% Frankfurt and Milan 3.89%.The pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 3.79%.
Nothing on the horizon that promises a respite as the economic slowdown casts doubt on the ability of states to redress public finances.
"The world needs for growth and markets need confidence, and when these two parameters no longer exist, the medium to long term investors desert the risky assets become vulnerable to speculative movements thank you and robots (trading high frequency), explained Christophe Brulé, founder of Entheca Finance.
He said in a note that the CAC 40 was much more upset than the U.S. indices."On August, 62% of the sessions of the CAC 40 saw current amplitude greater than 3% against only 35% for the U.S. market."
"If we return to economic fundamentals (macroeconomic growth and corporate earnings), the horizon was blocked for two months," he added.
In Paris, the three major French banks have accused the largest declines the CAC and touched lows. BNP Paribas fell by 12.35%, 10.64% of Crédit Agricole.Societe Generale, which has tried to reassure the market by a communication on his situation, dropped 10.75%.
BNP Paribas and SocGen accused too, with UniCredit (-10.91%), the largest declines in the index Stoxx European banking sector (-4.56%) recorded the largest decline in sector indices.
"The expectations of a deterioration of banks by Moody's are not a surprise if we judge by previous decisions of Standard & Poor's has already degraded the French banks.But it's not just a French problem is a wider problem related to the sovereign debt crisis, "said Stefan Isaacs, bond manager at M & G.
In this context, the flight to less risky assets has resulted in the bond market by a substantial amount of the performance of 10-year German Bund fell to a record low of 1.71% to finish at 1.74% against about 1.77% Friday.
Athens has a payment of aid in September
Greece will comply with its program of fiscal austerity and expects to receive its sixth installment of aid as planned in September, said on Monday a spokesman for the Greek government.
This new tranche of aid granted by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), should rise to 8 billion euros.
Friday, discussions between the Greek authorities and inspectors of the European Union, the IMF and the ECB have been suspended for ten days, the two sides disagreeing on the reasons and extent of the delay in the Athens reduce its budget deficit.
"We expect to receive the sixth round in September," said Ilias Mosialos reporters.
Athens invokes a recession more severe than expected, while its creditors in turn point to delays in the implementation of reforms such as reducing salaries in the public service, openness to competition and privatization of professions.
Greece is pressed to move forward on these reforms in the next ten days before the return of inspectors, to convince them that the country has made sufficient progress to be able to touch this new tranche of aid, even if it exceeded the objective of reducing its budget deficit to 7.6% this year, against 10.5% in 2010.
"We will put the program in place," said Ilias Mosialos.
Asked about the articles published in local media that Greece would seek to revise the goals of deficit reduction to reflect the impact of the recession, Mosialos Ilias said that discussions on this issue were ongoing.
The government estimates that the recession this year is 5% of GDP against 3.9% according to a recent projection.
"We have not requested a review of the objectives of the debt. We are in ongoing discussions with the Troika regarding the implementation of fiscal policy (…) and the macroeconomic indicators in general," has he said.
What do you think of Angela Merkel?
German Chancellor would be the most powerful woman in the world. A majority of French also make him more confident that Nicolas Sarkozy to resolve the crisis. And you, what do you think? German Chancellor Angela Merkel (Blegrade by August 23, 2011)
German Chancellor Angela Merkel is again this year the most powerful woman in the world, before the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and the President of Brazil Dilma Rousseff, according to the annual ranking by Forbes magazine. An award well deserved, it said in the comments inetrnautes expansion. Com.
A recent survey revealed also that the French, overwhelmingly concerned about the impact of the current financial situation, have more confidence in Chancellor Angela Merkel to Nicolas Sarkozy to resolve.What is ironic is that the Germans themselves increasingly skeptical of the capacity of Chancellor to resolve the financial crisis.
And you, what do you think of Angela Merkel? She deserves the title of most powerful woman in the world? What are its qualities or defects? Why make him more confident than Nicolas Sarkozy? Give us your opinion in the comments.
Your fears about the crisis are justified?
L'Expansion. Com sifts through the five main fears expressed by the French in these troubled times of economic and stock market crisis. A passerby looks at stock prices in Tokyo in March 2011. My bank can go bankrupt?
While banks face their worst tumble since the stock market subprime-Societe Generale to mention that it has lost over 45% in one month, investors began to fear for their savings. There are less than three months, however, French banks passed with flying colors the European stress tests, and announced in the wake of the results quite satisfactory, despite the provisions made after the support plan for Greece. Must we fear for the health of our banks? In a sense yes. They are highly exposed to sovereign risk, and would be the first undermined if the global economy would come back into recession.From there that they put the key under the door, there is not one that should not be crossed. If there's one thing the government learned from the 2008 crisis is that in no circumstances be allowed a systemic bank to fail. Another scenario is not excluded by cons: faced with the fall of their capital, some banks suddenly become very easy OPAbles, large could then use the crisis to swallow small …
My savings are threatened?
Almost all the French have a livret A and 62% have life insurance. Suffice to say that fears about saving people's minds occupied. The crisis that has engulfed stock markets since July, however, has no effect for now. She would only if one or more banks, unable to cash losses, went bankrupt.And even then, the Deposit Guarantee Fund (FGD) warrants to the tune of 100,000 euros per customer cash, that is to say money in current accounts and savings. It also covers securities-stocks and bonds, shares, mutual fund units to a maximum of 70,000 euros. Life insurance is a guarantee fund of the insured, which compensates each trustee to the tune of 70,000 euros. Your savings are safe.
Will I lose my job?
In the short term, but if the stock market crisis becomes a crisis in the real economy, it is a possibility. During the last economic crisis in 2008 and 2009, French companies have destroyed more than 350,000 payroll jobs, a record. However, it would have been welcome."French companies have taken on their margins up to prevent the dismissal, favoring the reduction of their payroll via the removal of precarious (temporary, fixed term contract)," says the expansion. Com Marion Cochard, an economist at the OFCE. That is why today they prefer to restore their margins rather than hiring. This explains why the unemployment rate does not fall significantly in the Hexagon. With this new crisis, firms may once again to postpone their investment projects, therefore hiring. This does not mean that they will terminate. Unless economic activity is a serious flu, and France plunged back into recession.In this case, employees of companies most vulnerable to global conditions (the automotive and manufacturing industry in particular) could face new social plans.
My taxes will increase?
Despite the mantra of Nicolas Sarkozy – there will be no general increase in taxes – reducing the public deficit tricolor requires the government to reach nearly 10 billion euros of additional revenue in 2012. To achieve this, he plans to create a new tax that would hit the richest households. It also plans to cut heavily in tax shelters. That is to raise taxes for households that benefit from these niches. Will be mainly concerned wealthy households, those who realize capital gains and real estate securities, investors in the overseas departments, real estate rental, etc..These tax increases should not affect low-income households and middle classes. Not for now at least. As to bring its public deficit to 3% of GDP in 2013, France can not help but raise taxes (VAT, CSG, etc.).. This course will be announced after the presidential election of 2012.
I can purchase real estate is at risk?
Yes. For three reasons. In 2008, after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, banks have tightened their lending conditions, businesses and individuals alike. Result, many households have had to give up their real estate project. It is too early to say whether the current instability will tighten credit, but given the losses suffered by banks in recent weeks, the probability is high. The other concern is that interest rates rise. Borrowing cost more, which will weigh a little more about the purchasing power of households' housing.Today, the rates of OAT [government bonds whose interest rates are used to set those credits] fall. But if France loses its triple A, or at least turn becomes the target of financial markets, the rates of OAT recover, and with them the credit rates. In addition, the government plans to reduce its deficit to plane several tax loopholes related to real estate in 2012: the tax cut under the Scellier will be reduced while the conditions for granting interest-free loan (PTZ) will be cured. What will weigh on the purchasing power of first-time buyers property.
The world could he really fall into recession?
The specter of a global economic recession haunts the markets. In Europe and the United States, growth has stalled. Even emerging markets are affected by this downturn.
Morgan Stanley estimated in a study released Thursday that the United States and the euro area are "dangerously close to recession". "Even if it is not our base case at this stage, we perceive a real risk of recession" in these two areas – the two largest in the world economy, said the U.S. investment bank. This warning has been a chilling effect on the markets. Facing the specter of another recession, global stock markets were again swept by a wave of panic.
In the euro area, growth has stalled: GDP grew only 0.2% in the second quarter.The two main area economies, Germany and France were particularly disappointed growth was near zero on both sides of the Rhine. Italy and Spain do little better (respectively 0.3% and 0.2%), while Greece and Portugal are in recession. "Growth may be lower than expected, lower than expected," admitted Van Rompuy, the president of EU and future president of the euro area. But we do not anticipate any negative economic growth, recession, "he said. Still, Morgan Stanley lowered its forecast for growth in the eurozone to 1.7% in 2011 (against 2% previously) and a small 0.5% in 2012 (against 1.7%).
30% chance that Europe and the United States falls into recession
The situation is hardly more reassuring to the other side of the Atlantic. U.S. GDP grew by only 1.3% in the second quarter, after only 0.4% earlier this year.The latest published indicators reveal a picture of a gloomy outlook for U.S. economy. The activity and industrial production are lower, inflation weighs on the purchasing power, the housing sector is still in the doldrums and unemployment remains above 9%. In a context of sluggish recovery, the U.S. economy does not actually create enough jobs to reduce unemployment (average 132,000 per month since the beginning of the year when it would take 150,000).
Accordingly, JPMorgan Chase Friday lowered its growth forecast for the United States. The U.S. investment bank estimates that U.S. GDP grew by only 1% in the fourth quarter of 2011 and only 0.5% in the first quarter of 2012. No analyst does, however, a recession (two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction) on one side or the other of the Atlantic at this time."The likelihood that the United States and / or Europe will fall into recession in the coming months is only 30 to 40%," says Patrick Moonen, senior strategist at ING IM. However, this risk is rising sharply, "he adds.
Two factors may tip the balance of advanced economies on the negative side. First, a continuation of the fall market. Transmission of the panic in financial markets on businesses and households could have disastrous effects. This pummel consumer, and especially it would encourage companies to postpone or cancel their investment projects.Or restocking and business investment are still the only engine that could drive growth in Europe and the United States.
Hopes the new U.S. stimulus plan
The second risk is that the austerity widespread in Europe and the United States do not create a vicious circle of negative growth: to reduce debt and deficits, states cut in social spending, investment and support growth (such as scrapping or tax exemptions). Result, households will consume more, business activity slows, then the state recorded less tax revenues and the deficit is widening even more. In Europe, this cycle does seem engaged: when they are threatened with recession, the peripheral countries of the euro area are competing austerity.Spain has voted to sell a new austerity plan intended to save an additional EUR 5 billion within two years. Italy has it announced an austerity plan of 45 billion euros last week. France plans to follow suit Wednesday, August 24 with listings of suppression of new tax loopholes.
The hope may come from the United States. Barack Obama raised the possibility of a new fiscal stimulus to support the economy. The U.S. president will unveil his plan in September, but we already know that it will focus on employment. This would include extending the declines in social contribution rates for employees and businesses, as well as long-term unemployment compensation, to ensure the financing of private projects or tax cuts that affect businesses.The project, which would increase the deficit for Uncle Sam 2.5 percentage points of GDP, would have little effect on growth, according to experts at Natixis. But it will avoid a fiscal tightening de facto linked to the expiry of the recovery plan of 2010, tightening that might prove disastrous for U.S. growth in 2012.
And even if Europe and the United States experience periods of zero or negative growth in the coming months, the world does not mean plunge into recession, as in 2009. Today, 80% of global growth is provided by the emerging countries, China and India in mind. Certainly they will not be spared by the global slowdown in activity, but their good performance should cushion the poor in developed countries. Morgan Stanley still expects global growth of 3.9% in 2011 and 3.8% in 2012.