Recovery within 3 months of buyback of shares to the ECB

The European Central Bank (ECB) will resume its share buyback program of sovereign debt of countries in the euro area in the course of the next three months because of high yields on securities of different countries and relapse into recession in the block, show the results of a Reuters poll of economists from.

Three quarters of survey participants believe the central bank will resume its work on sovereign debt to lower yields and a large majority of them expect it to intervene in the three coming months. 

"The renewed tensions on the bond markets can provide an alarm loud enough to wake the share buyback program," said Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec, in reference to the purchase program of sovereign debt in the euro area the ECB has shelved for six weeks.

"There is nothing imminent, but we feel that this should not be too far off," continued Philip Shaw.

The ECB had reactivated its share buyback program in August after four months of interruption while the sovereign debt of Italy and Spain were attacked. 

The lull caused by the announcement and the implementation of two unlimited refinancing operations to three years in December and February, which resulted in the injection of more of 1,000 billion euros liquiditésa led to a muting of the program.

The representatives of the ECB, and its chairman Mario Draghi himself Wednesday, had clearly said that the ball was now in the court of governments regarding new measures to support the activity.

Yields on sovereign debt in Spain ten years, however, have recently crossed the threshold of 6.0%, considered difficult to sustain over time. 

The ECB has already acquired the equivalent of 200 billion sovereign debt while sterilizing its interventions by a withdrawal of an equivalent amount of liquidity to the banking system avoid monetization of public debt that its statutes forbid it.

The first results of the survey from Markit purchasing managers (PMI) for the euro area in April released Monday showed an increased contraction of activity in the private sector.

According to a previous Reuters poll of economists from the euro area is expected to moderate recession until the third quarter of this year. 

The ECB lowered its main rate at a record low of 1.0% in December, should not change it in one way or another before 2014, according to the forecast EM diane of economists surveyed this week.

Only one economist told to expect the ECB to lower its main rate by a quarter point at the next meeting of its Board of Governors, May 3

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Job creation slows in March in the U.S.

The number of jobs créésa been well below expectations in March in the U.S., which suggests that the Fed has leeway for further monetary easing, although the unemployment rate fell to a three-year low of 8.2%.

The number of jobs créésa was 120,000 in March, reported the Labor Department Friday, the lowest since October 2011.

Economists polled by Reuters expected a number of 203,000 and an unchanged unemployment rate of 8.3%.

Despite the low number of jobs created, average hourly earnings rose five cents per month, while the workweek fell to 34.5 hours against 34, 6:00 in February.

The global air traffic up 9.3% yoy in February

The air passenger traffic grew 9.3% yoy in February but rising fuel prices and the deterioration of the overall business climate are factors of uncertainty for the future, announced Tuesday the International Air Transport Association (Iata).

The numbers at the end of February have benefited the Chinese New Year, Carnival in Rio and a favorable base effect due to the impact of traffic on the Arab spring last year ; re the same period.

"The outlook is fragile. Improving the business climate weakened in February. This will limit the potential for customer growth in business class and implies an acceleration of the freight is not imminent, "said Tony Tyler, CEO of Iata said in a statement

. growth in international cargo was 5.1% on-year slide in February …… Passenger traffic

… grew faster than the available capacity that growth came to 7.3% year on year, which resulted in a better load factor of the devices. The trend was reversed for freight, which has resulted in a rate of capacity utilization of only 50%, IATA said … ……

Havas buys 12% stake for 253 million euros

Havas Friday presented a proposed acquisition of 12% of its capital to reduce the discount on the stock exchange and optimize its financial structure.

Number six global advertising announcement in a statement launching a tender offer for 51,729,602 shares (Opra), for a price of 4.90 euros per share, giving a total of 253 million.

Vincent Bolloré, which controls 32.84% of Havas which he is president, is committed to the AMF not to exceed the threshold of 37.32% of share capital and voting rights and not to influence the decisions of the Extraordinary General Meeting of May 10 

Havas said its decision by the lag between changes in its net income, which more than doubled between late 2006 and late 2011 to 120 million euros, and that of his action grew only 2.3% over the same period, resulting in discounted valuation multiples compared to peers.

The action Havas has closed up 0.92% to 4.053 euros Friday, giving a market capitalization of 1.75 billion. She won 27% since the beginning of the year, after falling 18% in 2011.

Havas announced in early March organic growth greater than its European rivals WPP and Publicis in 2011, without providing a forecast for 2012.

Aid to Greece may be only a brief respite

The largest ever corporate debt restructuring may be only a brief respite for Greece, a country in recession, which has to bear in addition the uncertainty of the next election .

Greece Friday dismissed the risk of imminent default, thanks to the strong participation of private creditors in exchange for bonds which allow the country reduce its debt of a hundred billion euros and receive a second level of international aid amounting to 130 billion euros.

"This exchange does not solve the situation in Greece," said Holger Schmieding, economist at Berenberg Bank. "Obviously, without him, Greece is in the hole but his problem is the return to growth, without it, no debt burden is manageable."

It is estimated that gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by Greek 15% since 2008. More than one in ten jobs disappeared and more than half of youth are unemployed.

The new austerity measures agreed in exchange for a new international aid, as 20% reduction in the minimum wage, may plunge the country deeper into recession. It would be impossible for the government to achieve the fiscal targets set by international donors in exchange for their help.

"The risk is great that more austerity puts the country to its knees," said Diego Iscaro (ISH Gloal Insight), holding that the social situation could become "explosive" if unemployment continues to rise in a country with almost daily demonstrations against austerity.

Austerity and delays in the reform of the state have made the recession deeper than foreseen in the European Union and the International Monetary Fund since 2010. 

Athens has also consistently missed its fiscal targets and has continued to downgrade to no longer occupy the 90th place out of the 142 countries included in the Global Competitiveness Forum world economy.

"The main reason why the rest of Greece in the euro area is because the choice is really bad. But if we go to press without giving a little air to the economy, sooner or later people will have enough, "says Diego Iscaro

…. RESTRUCTURING ….. MORE SEVERE

Polls show a majority of Greeks remain attached to membership ; the euro area but they are increasingly likely to be tempted to vote for parties that oppose reforms attached to international aid, early elections ; es which could be held in late April

. "If there are elections in April or May, markets Financial will remain about as nervous vis-à-vis Greece they were during the two and a half years, "notes Holger Schmieding. "It would be a huge element of uncertainty for Greece and for Europe".

Even if the recount resulted in a new coalition party of New Democracy and PASOK socialist and if it intended to carry out reforms, it could end up a target of popular pressure e ; standard if the donors demanded more sacrifices during their quarterly inspections.

"If the troika (EU, IMF, European Central Bank) said: 'You're late and you have set up for x billion austerity measures', this risk be the spark that ignites the powder, "said Ben May (Capital Economics). 

In a confidential report, the EU and the IMF warned that the bailout plan can easily derail the debt and return to its pre trade if Greece continues to fail its objectives or if the recession is more severe than expected.

Even if the bailout succeeds in reducing the debt of Greece to 120% of GDP by 2020 as against 160% at present, this new percentage is not considered manageable the long term.

"We think we need to prepare for a more severe restructuring at one time or another, which may imply official creditors," says Ben May. "That's the only way to lower Greece's debt significantly."

The problem is that Greece does not have a good record as it was supposed to reforms undertaken under the first bailout and in this case, donors may be much less streaming in their quarterly inspections.

"If Greece continues to miss its targets, while the troika or later may lose patience and turn off the tap of credit," observed Diego Iscaro.

Latécoère will hire to meet demand

The aerospace supplier Latécoère will make new hires in 2012 to increase production rates and thus satisfy the growing demand of its large customers are Airbus or Boeing.

At the same time, Latecoere, which employs 4,175 people in nine countries, is still open to industry consolidation.

"We are in a phase of relative privilege where all our customers demand increases in rates," said Francois Bertrand, chief executive of Latécoère at an interview with Reuters. 

Based in Toulouse, the group was founded in 1917, is facing increased rate of production programs Airbus, Boeing and Embraer, while air traffic has increased 6% last year.

"The priority is to manage growth," said Francois Bertrand, adding that the group plans to hire at least 200 additional employees to meet this demand and avoid production delays.

"Currently, the market is booming. The high commands of last year increased its order book and therefore lead to increases in speed. "

Latécoè re projected that its turnover will increase by 10% in 2012, after rising 12% in 2011

. The business, including Airbus accounts for 50% of sales, will continue to expand in North America where it is looking for a new production site. Boeing, the second client (15% of sales, and Embraer) should play an increasingly important Latécoère in the coming years.

Deficit and debt, the company had begun in May 2010 seeking a new shareholder, a search that had failed after the deadline for late 2011.

"In the short term, what matters is the growth management, but the subject of consolidation is still on the table," says Francois Bertrand, adding that an agreement could be reached before the deadline for two to three years announced in November.

"The consolidation will be particularly important in the context of new program launches," he says. 

Latécoère, who has returned to profits in 2010, would merge with one of 15 European OEMs to create a group of at least one billion euros in turnover, Francois Bertrand said.

In 2011, the group recorded a net profit of EUR 6.6 million on a rag business of 520 million euros, while its debt amounted to 370 million, a level that expected to decline by 50 million euros in 2012.

"We returned to a normal situation where our financial resources fit our profile of cash, which was no longer the case from 2008-2009 where large slips were place, "says Francois Bertrand. 

The action Latecoere closed Friday at 11.52 euros (0.17%) showing a market capitalization of 99.187 million euros.

The credit was sent back to U.S.

The consumer loans have almost regained their pre-crisis dynamism Some U.S. consumers during the "Black Friday", Friday, October 26, 2010 REUTERS / Adam Hunger

The consumer credit surged for the third consecutive month in the U.S. in January, according to figures released Wednesday by the U.S. central bank (Fed).

Outstanding consumer credit in the country (2,512.3 billion) grew by 8.6% annually and seasonally adjusted data for the previous month, the Fed said on its website .

Using this type of borrowing has accelerated compared to December, where the increase in consumer credit was 7.9%. The increase in assets was nevertheless lower than in November (9.8%). Volume, growth in January was 17.8 billion compared with December, according to figures from the central bank, which is well above the increase expected by the analysts ($ 12.0 billion according their median estimate).

The Federal Reserve, the January increase was the result of a new surge in non-recurrent (student loans or buying a car mainly), whose growth was 14.7%, the highest since February 2002.

Revolving loans (primarily those made by paying by credit card) have slowed progress of the Fed index backwards for the first time in five months, 4.4% from December.

After collapsing for two years, the consumer credit rose almost continuously in the United States since October 2010 (it fell only once since then, in August 2011). The Fed said that the whole of 2011, the consumer credit rebounded 3.6%.

China interested in electric models by Renault

The Renault range of vehicles that manufacture and market in China will incorporate at least one electric model at the request of the Chinese, said Tuesday the deputy CEO of group.

Renault hopes to produce locally from 2014-2015, joining Nissan in the Chinese market through joint venture that holds its Japanese partner with China's Dongfeng. He hopes to get the green light from authorities by the end of the year to start building its first factory in China.

"Our Chinese partners are very interested in zero-emission vehicles, including electric vehicles," said Carlos Tavares to the press room Geneva Motor Show.

"They asked us to integrate our product plan vehicles of this technology and of course, knowing this is one of our strengths, we agreed to do so willingly, for benefit of the JV, "he added.

"It is tasty as the bet of the electric vehicle is the element that we will return to China, but it is a fact, they asked us."

Renault unveiled in Geneva at the forefront of its electric range, the city Zoe, which will be produced soon Flins (Yvelines). It adds to the Kangoo nonthermal, the Fluence sedan and mini-urban vehicle Twizzy

. Despite a slower start than expected this type of vehicle, the group believes they still account for 10% of the automotive market in 2020

.

Consumer confidence unchanged in February

The index of consumer confidence in France is almost stable in February compared with the previous month, announced Friday INSEE.

The composite indicator is 82 against 81 in January.

In February, consumer confidence about their personal financial situation went down 2 points, INSEE said.

That their future personal finances rose 2 points, while remaining below its long-term average. Households are also more numerous than in January to consider it advisable to make major purchases (5 points).

Commerzbank increased its capital, earnings down sharply

Penalized by a $ 700 million spent on Greek sovereign debt, Commerzbank, the second German bank, said Thursday a sharp decline in profit while by announcing a capital increase to strengthen its balance sheet.

This capital increase, which will help meet the requirements of regulators, will be through the conversion of hybrid instruments and subordinated debt.

The bank said it was missing at the end of December 1.8 billion euros, the lack of capital to bridge having been reduced by improving the management structure of capital and the sale of risky assets.

It nevertheless recognizes that the crisis in the euro area is a potential threat to its results. 

"The high degree of uncertainty associated with the crisis of European sovereign debt will remain, however, a challenge for us," said the CEO of the bank Martin Blessing.

Commerzbank also said to be exposed to the tune of 12.3 billion euro sovereign debt Portuguese, Italian, Irish, Greek and Spanish.

The second German bank said it had depreciated its claims on Greece to 74% in late 2011.

In the last quarter of fiscal 2011, the bank generated an operating profit of 163 million euros after a loss of 855 million in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter 2010, operating profit was stood at 256 million euros.

For 2012, the group said it anticipates an improvement in balance and adds that it will concentrate on the German and Polish markets.